25 Feb #BONUS PODCAST I: Bilingual episode on Veker’s Covid analysis
The Very Not Normal Podcast; Bonus Episode in English with Yiddish
This podcast is a discussion on the Hasidic Covid data. Since it’s in response to a Yiddish article, the recording is in Yiddish and English.
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- #ARTICLE: Cover story in Veker #18
- #ARTICLE: My blog posts on Covid since March.
- #WEBSITE: Aier.org has excellent anti-lockdown analysis.
- #LINK: Kaveshtibel forum thread where Yeedle originally published the KJ calculations.
- #INFO: On NY excess deaths, which are calculated differently than the Veker’s excess death. The CDC’s model (which I don’t know all details of) is for a much longer period to establish the baseline and it includes a seasonal regression model.
- § Total excess all-cause deaths were calculated as observed deaths minus expected deaths as determined by a seasonal regression model using mortality data from the period January 1, 2015–May 2, 2020.
- #INFO: On how the CDC used excess deaths numbers to calculate flu deaths, see from their website: [NOTE: it looks like they have a new method but when I did the podcast I only knew of this method and thought this was still the one in use. But that doesn’t contradict my overall point.]
- “CDC has made periodic estimates of deaths associated with influenza virus infections for five decades, initially relying on direct counts of deaths with influenza listed as a cause of death and then focusing on deaths with pneumonia or influenza listed as a cause. Recognizing that direct counts of deaths was underestimating the true burden, CDC turned to using statistical models. Initially, these methods relied on setting specific weeks during the winter and spring when influenza viruses circulated as times ‘at risk’. Increases above periodic, regular variations in deaths during these weeks ‘at risk’ were attributed to the circulation of influenza viruses, and often termed excess deaths. These statistical methods were used to estimate excess deaths that occurred from 1976-2007 (8) and more recently from 2005-2016 (9). Current estimates of flu-related deaths are now based on the mathematical model described above. Each approach, the statistical and the mathematical model, has its own strengths as well as limitations.”
- #INFO: From the CDC, on the harsh flu season during the 2017-2018 flu season.
- #ARTICLE: The James Baldwin essay I mentioned.
- #BONUS BONUS: If you are interested in hearing experts speak against the lockdown narrative, here is one from Israel that I think will provide a good counter narrative to what we are hearing in the mainstream.